Holiday revenues expected to fall

This is the prediction of the Norwegian Federation of Service Industries and Retail Trade (NHO Service og Handel), which presented its forecast for Christmas 2022 shopping revenue at the end of October. This is what is foreseen:

* This year’s Christmas sales in Norway will probably be closer to the 2019 level than the level during the pandemic.

* A decrease of 2.4% compared to last year is estimated.

* A decline is expected in most industries.

* Strong price increases mean that Norwegians will get less for their money. The decline in volume will probably be significantly greater than the decline in Norwegian kroner.

Online shopping is expected to remain at the same level as last year.

Source: NHO
What Norwegians spend money on each year.

Overall, Norwegians are expected to spend NOK 124 billion on Christmas shopping this year.

When all is said and done, in December, every Norwegian is expected to spend an average of NOK 12,000 on gifts, food, various purchases in brick-and-mortar shops, and online shopping, according to NHO. It is estimated that Norwegians as whole will spend a total of NOK 124 billion on Christmas shopping in November and December.

During the pandemic, trade rose sharply. This particularly applied to Christmas 2020. That year, the growth was over 15%.

Pandemic restrictions put an end to cross-border trade, restaurants and pubs were closed or subject to strict requirements, and cultural offerings were more or less shut down. People therefore spent more of their money on online shopping and store purchases than on services.

This year, however, it is expected that more people will again want to go to a Christmas party, eat at a restaurant, travel, and buy services that were not available last year.

Want to select more affordable products and to shop sales

At the same time as consumption shifts more toward services, Norwegians have also generally had reduced purchasing power this year. General price growth, higher interest rates, and increased electricity bills mean that many people want to be more careful. Therefore, many will want to choose cheaper versions of the goods they buy to a greater extent, NHO believes.

In addition, it was expected that more people would start Christmas shopping earlier to find offers during Black Week at the end of November. NHO points out that in the past, November has approached December in sales, and that this is driven by Black Week.

Christmas trade is very important for several industries. For kitchenware, toys, and music, sales increase by more than 100%. For jewelers, booksellers, watchmakers, and electronics, turnover increases by between 50% and 98% compared to a normal month.